Fact Sheet 15 - Population Projections
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At March 2008, the estimated Australian resident population was 21.3 million, an increase of 336,800 people (or 1.6 per cent) since March 2007. This population growth rate was somewhat higher than the world population growth rate of 1.2 per cent over the same period.
Estimating population Growth
Based on the following series of assumptions about Australia's future fertility, life expectancy and net overseas migration, Australia's population is projected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) to grow to between 30.9 million and 42.5 million in 2056. Under the ABS medium (Series B) assumptions, Australia's population would increase from 35.5 million in 2056 to 44.7 million in 2101.
The effect of these assumptions on Australia’s estimated population are shown below.
Fertility
Australia's total fertility rate (TFR), the average number of children a woman would bear over her lifetime, fell strongly from 3.6 children per woman in 1961 to reach 1.9 by 1979 and continued to fall steadily for the next 20 years. This downward trend in fertility rates has been seen in almost every developed country as well as many developing nations. However, recently the TFR has been relatively stable, varying between 1.73 and 1.76 between 1998 and 2003. In 2002-03 it reached a low of 1.72 children per woman, which is the lowest on record. It has increased slightly to 1.85 in 2006-07.
Few developed countries have a fertility rate as high as Australia with the USA being the most notable exception with a TFR around the replacement rate of 2.1.
Life Expectancy
Since the 1960s life expectancy in Australia and in other countries has increased significantly. Between 1996 and 2006 life expectancy at birth has increased by around two and a half years for males and females, reaching 78.7 years for males and 83.5 for females in 2006.
Net Overseas Migration (NOM)
Net overseas migration is the addition (or loss) to the population of Australia arising from the difference between those leaving permanently or on a long–term (12 months or longer) basis and those arriving permanently or long–term. The annual net overseas migration figure is also adjusted to account for people who change their travel intentions, for example, people who come to Australia intending to stay short-term (less than 12 months) but who actually stay longer, or vice versa.
NOM can fluctuate considerably from year to year, but has been steadily increasing in recent years. In the year ending March 2008 NOM was 199 100 persons – the highest figure on record. It is this increase in NOM that is the main cause of Australia’s relatively high rate of recent population growth.
Composition
The ABS estimates that 23.6 per cent of the population were born overseas. Of those born overseas, 33.3 per cent were born in North–West Europe (mainly the United Kingdom and Ireland), 17.7 per cent in Southern and Eastern Europe and 12.6 per cent in South–East Asia. In terms of countries, the highest proportion of overseas born are from the United Kingdom (23.5 per cent of the overseas born), New Zealand (8.8 per cent) and China (4.7 per cent).
Potential workforce
The potential workforce is the number of people in the population of workforce age, which is usually defined as 15–64 year olds. The actual workforce will depend on the proportion of 15–64 years olds that seek to actively participate in the workforce and those 65 and over who continue to work.
In recent years Australia's potential workforce has been growing by over 200 000 people each year. At June 2008, the number of people of workforce age was 14.2 million people (67.5 per cent of the population).
The three different ABS series show quite different outcomes in the number of people aged 15 – 64 (see figure below). For example series A shows continued strong growth in Australia’s potential workforce to 2101, whereas series C shows very little growth at all.
People not in the workforce are generally less likely to be paying taxes and are more likely to be dependent on pensions and other forms of government support. Therefore another useful measure is to compare Australia’s potential workforce against Australia’s total population. This analysis shows similar trends for all three ABS series, with the proportion in the 15-64 year age-range steadily declining from 67 per cent in 2008 to between 59 and 61 per cent in 2051 and between 56 and 59 per cent in 2101.
Population Ageing
Population projections for Australia show that the ageing of our population will continue. This is the inevitable result of fertility remaining at low levels over a long period and increasing life expectancy.
Over the coming years, the population is projected to age progressively with the median age of 37.0 years in 2008 increasing to around 41 years in 2051 for series A and B, and about 45 years for series C. By 2101 the median age will be between 44 (series A and B) and 47 (series C).
Similarly, the proportion of older Australians is expected to increase over the coming years. In 2008, around 13 per cent of Australia's population was aged 65 and over, by 2051 this figure is expected to be between 22 and 24 per cent - slowly increasing to between 25 and 28 per cent by 2101.
Extensive research has concluded that immigration beyond current levels would have a diminishing impact on retarding the ageing of the population. This reflects ageing being a gradual process and that most migrants who enter Australia would themselves be part of the aged population in 30 to 40 years time.
Massive and ever increasing levels of immigration would be needed to have any significant impact on the proportion of the population that is aged. Such levels would result in a very large population in future years. Changes in the fertility rate have a far greater impact on the population age structure than changes in migration levels.
For further information about population ageing, please refer to The Impact of Immigration on the Ageing of Australia's Population by Professor McDonald and Rebecca Kippen.
Further information is available on the department's web site.
See: www.immi.gov.au
The department also operates a national telephone service inquiry line.
Telephone: 131 881
Hours of operation: Monday to Friday from 9am to 4pm (recorded information available outside these hours) for the cost of a local call anywhere in Australia.
Fact Sheet 15. Produced by the National Communications Branch, Department of Immigration and Citizenship.
Revised 7 October 2008.
© Commonwealth of Australia 2008.